What To Expect In Another Trump Administration

I thought I’d be writing a very different piece today. On Tuesday morning, I found myself commiserating with numerous Black women – friends, line sisters and co-workers – about our feelings of “cautious optimism.” We were hopeful while also questioning our level of calm because we know the track record of the United States electorate and the way misogynoir permeates every aspect of our existence here. A mere twelve hours later, the familiar feeling of disgust, disdain and disappointment filled my cells and my spirit. Shouldn’t I have known better? Octavia been told us!

Alas these election results are on brand for the United States where white nationalism is the foundation of this country, encoded its DNA and origin story. History repeats itself and the policies Trump and his henchmen touted are remixed versions of Jim Crow laws. Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint for how conservatives will dismantle the federal government, became an ubiquitous talking point because it spelled out the white supremacist agenda that Trump and his team were invested in. It starts with firing thousands of qualified, career civil servants and replacing them with inexperienced cronies. Apartheid enthusiast Elon Musk would oversee “government efficiency,” cutting the federal budget by one-third which would “tumble markets” and yield “temporary hardship” for some Americans (guess who). Musk would also fire Lina Khan and decimate the Federal Trade Commission which has been effectively regulating unscrupulous tech companies including his. Trump also promised to appoint former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) which also oversees the National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Kennedy Jr. has no public health or medical experience, and is unabashedly an anti-science conspiracy theorist.

Trump’s communications team repeatedly said to “Take him seriously, not literally” as he viciously attacked immigrants, queer and trans people, and women while aligning himself with neo-Nazis. I take these threats both seriously and literally so let’s examine what we can expect from his presidency. We must know our opposition to strategize and prepare for what’s ahead.  

Before I dive in, note that he won’t be able to do everything with one pen stroke because some of his proposals will require congressional approval. At the time of writing, we don’t know which party will control the House so hopefully that will be our stopgap from codifying his oppressive fantasies. His promises are also deficient in details which could hopefully hinder them from becoming realities. Regardless of the outcome, there is room for us to organize and win so it’s imperative we stay engaged and get in where we fit in. 

Reproductive Justice:

We should expect a national abortion ban, even though seven states in this election voted in support of abortion access. These laws will continue to disproportionately affect Black women and pregnant people who already face higher rates of maternal mortality. It’s no coincidence that the largest concentration of abortion bans is in the South where the majority of Black people reside. We have seen the impacts of anti-abortion legislation in Texas and Georgia, most recently through the stories of Amber Thurman and Candi Miller. “The limited protections of medication abortion and emergency care treatment are in jeopardy and states are now emboldened to further criminalize pregnancy,” said Nourbese Flint, President of the All In Action Fund. She notes that because of the Senate majority, Trump will be able to easily appoint radical cabinet secretaries including for HHS (see RFK Jr.). “I deeply fear the type of terror women, trans folks and gender non-conforming people will face in the upcoming administration,” she shared.  

Immigration:

Remember those “Mass Deportation Now” signs being emphatically waved at the Republican National Convention? Isabel Wilkerson, author of Caste: The Origin of Our Discontents, reminds us that banning abortion to ensure more (white) births, and deciding who is an acceptable immigrant and who gets deported, is a response to the end of a “white” majority by 2042. Thus immigration reform became a central and winning issue after months of fear mongering layered with promises to execute the “largest deportation program in history” through building massive deportation camps, diverting military money to the border and hiring more patrol agents. Trump said he’ll use the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law created during war to give the president power to deport any male over age 14 from a “foreign enemy country.” Both undocumented immigrants and legal residents could get caught up in these sweeps based purely on their assumed country of origin. This law was used to put Japanese people living in the United States in internment camps during World War II. We saw how Trump separated families at the border during his first administration, and now he is ready to separate mixed-status families or deport them as a unit. In addition to the desecration of human rights, the cost of these programs is astronomical and will fall on taxpayers.  

Civil Rights and Democracy: 

Trump recycled the anti-Black “law and order” narrative, telling his supporters that he will give the police more power to use unchecked force plus qualified immunity which means they cannot be prosecuted for excessive violence, i.e. murdering Black people. He will likely renounce President Biden’s executive order on police reform and use of force, and encourage prosecutors to seek the harshest penalties because there’s money to be made when prisons are full and new ones are being built. 

Trump asserted that he’d weaponize the United States military against peaceful protestors which could have a chilling effect and put more Black bodies behind bars. “They are deliberate moves to silence Black voices, criminalize our protests and strip away our rights to free speech,” Sade Dumas, Program Director at the Borealis Foundation. “We are in a fight for our future.”

Book bans will continue and social media companies continue to censor progressive political content. “We can expect the media to be targeted in ways that will impact their infrastructure and will quelch free speech, free expression and accurate reporting on the Trump administration in a way we didn’t see in the first one,” explained Tia Oso, Senior Director of Media 2070 and Arizona Black organizer. She noted how he told us that he’d target his political enemies and pull broadcast licenses from media outlets that reported on him unfavorably. “People are going to be afraid of retaliation and targeting by his government,” she said. 

Trump wants to eliminate the Department of Education and Republicans promised to withhold federal funds from any schools that explicitly discuss race or gender, and he wants to reinstate his “1776 Commission” so schools will have to teach revisionist, white-washed nationalist history. Project 2025 proposes gutting diversity, equity and inclusion programs (DEI) in the workplace which they call “burdensome ideological projects” and will eliminate unions in favor of “employee involvement organizations” that have no bargaining power. 

His campaign demonized and scapegoated trans people, fueling transphobia by focusing on trans women on women’s sports teams which he would ban. More sinister is banning gender-affirming health care, thus denying trans youth access to medical care that respects their gender identity and criminalizing adults who support them. His Supreme Court picks have eliminated affirmative action and lower courts have criminalized affinity groups designed for Black communities or women. 

The Economy:

Trump will impose a 10 to 20 percent tariff (tax) all on U.S. imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. If you thought inflation made prices high, brace yourself. The next time you shop, check how many things are made in China and then do the math. It disproportionately impacts lower-income Americans who mostly purchase imported goods. He’s promised to eliminate the federal income tax and payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare which may provide some relief now but are projected to deplete Social Security by 2031. His 2017 tax cuts, which are up for renewal, favored the wealthy by significantly decreasing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Trump claims he’ll bring mortgage interest rates back down to 3% but the president doesn’t control interest rates. Even though the Affordable Care Act won’t likely be repealed, health care costs could increase. Trump and Vance want to loosen regulations on insurers – reinstating risk-based pricing to lower rates for healthy, young people and raising rates for elders and people with pre-existing conditions who are considered to be “risky” because they most need health care services. 

But I’m most struck by one of the dozens of Nobel Prize winning economists who condemned Trump’s plans. He noted that economic and political certainty are among the “most important determinants of economic success.” 

International Relations: 

It’s an understatement to say that our current policy towards Israel and Palestine has been woefully abysmal, considering we have sent billions of taxpayer dollars that could fix roads or schools here, to fund weapons that kill and maim innocent Palestinians. Yet a Trump presidency creates an unchecked opportunity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu’s ongoing assault on Palestinian communities and eliminates any possibility of a Palestinian state. In 2018, Trump eliminated funding of UNRWA, United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, and Biden restored it in 2021. It is highly unlikely Trump will continue funding them once in office. 

45 famously admires dictators Kim Jong Un and his BFF in his head, Vladimir Putin. During the height of the pandemic, he gave COVID tests to Russia before his constituents. He claims he will end the war in Ukraine but at what expense to Ukranians? Anticipate Trump to peddle more Russian disinformation as Putin strokes his ego and attempts to create chaos. 

Climate Change:

As we saw in the first term, Trump is a climate change denier and will hire other delusional people for positions in government agencies like the Department of Energy or National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He supports more oil and gas drilling, and will again leave the Paris Agreement which focuses on reducing greenhouse house emissions (the U.S. is the second biggest contributor). Greenhouse gasses are responsible for the heating of Earth’s atmosphere, contributing to extreme weather events like hurricanes and wildfires. Black communities and communities of color are most impacted by severe weather because of our geography (concentrated in the Southeast) and our socioeconomic status. Project 2025 calls for privatizing the National Weather Service, eliminating free weather and warning forecasts in exchange for a paid system. Imagine having to pay for your weather app. 

There are some guardrails in place to maintain some of these agencies but there’s nothing stopping the GOP from rejecting global climate commitments which are critical for the health of our communities and the future of our planet.Woosah. It’s hard not to read this and feel despair or defeat. It will be frustrating, triggering and exhausting but our ancestors did harder things…for us and our futures. Even with all of the uncertainty, many Black organizers are reminding us that we’ve always had each other. “When we think about civil rights and past movements, there was mutual aid. There is a sense of community that we will have to go back to,” Dumas said. We are going to need each other in these following days and months, so take a nap and some deep breaths and let’s tap in.